On 23 April 2026 TipESM delivered a policy briefing to the Brazilian government on the potential tipping of the Amazon rainforest.

Factsheet: The Amazon: A Potential Tipping Point in The Earth’s Climate System’ on zendodo: Read the factsheet on zendodo

Authors:

• Desislava Petrova, Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)
• Pau Rubio, Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)
• Ivana Cvijanovi, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development (IRD)
• Andrew Hartley, UK Met Office

Takeaways

The severe pressure from climate change and deforestation could trigger a partial or total dieback of the Amazon rainforest in the near future, resulting in a critical transition from tropical forest to savanna. An Amazon forest tipping point would likely be irreversible, with estimates suggesting it would take over 100 years to regrow to its previous state and ecosystem function.

TipESM is producing a range of new climate simulations specifically designed to assess the sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest to global warming. These simulations also enable researchers to examine how major climate patterns, including the ENSO cycle, may change under global warming and how such changes could affect the Amazon.

Climate model simulations suggest that the rainforest could collapse into a savanna-like state across a wide range of temperatures, from 2°C to 6°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, with the most likely range between 3°C and 4°C.

The consequences of Amazon tipping would be severe, as it would threaten the food and water security of the 47 million people living in the Legal Amazon, accelerate global climate change as the forest shifts from carbon sink to source, drive biodiversity loss and the spread of infectious diseases, and risk mass migration and political instability across the region.