TipESM is a project funded by the European Union Horizon Europe Funding Programme. TipESM stands for Exploring Tipping Points and their Impacts Using Earth System Models.

TipESM brings together scientists from a range of disciplines to deliver a step change in our understanding of climate tipping points in the Earth system, including their impact on ecosystems and society, combined with a set of early warning indicators and safe future emission pathways that minimise the risk of exceeding such tipping points.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), tipping points are critical thresholds that, when exceeded, can lead to significant and potentially irreversible changes in the climate system.

Global warming poses an increasing risk of tipping across several key Earth system phenomena. This includes continental ice sheets, marine ecosystems, permafrost, vegetation dynamics, wildfires, and the full carbon cycle. The tipping of these can potentially have severe, even catastrophic consequences for ecosystems, biodiversity, and societies.

Earth System Models, also known as ESMs, simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, and biosphere to estimate the future state of the climate. They can also include the impacts of human decision-making in their simulations. Consequently, Earth System Models can provide critical information on water availability, drought, climate and extreme temperatures, ice sheets and sea levels, and land-use change.

TipESM designs and performs simulations dedicated to climate tipping point studies utilising the most advanced Earth System Models. These ESMs incorporate physical climate models (known as GCMs) and integrate key Earth system elements at risk of tipping, such as the continental ice sheets, marine ecosystems, permafrost, vegetation dynamics, wildfires, and the full carbon cycle. With these enhanced ESMs, TipESM will be able to provide more accurate predictions of early warnings and future climate states.

The simulations produced in TipESM provides a unique database for us to systematically examine the risk and robustness of various tipping point causes, their precursors, as well as their (ir)reversibility, and the effect of overshooting warming targets.

The models will also allow us to study the potential for cascading impact of a tipping point on other elements of the Earth, including their broader implications for the climate as well as societies and ecosystems.

No, TipESM does not predict the exact timing when an Earth system element will tip. However, TipESM does examines tipping point causes, their precursors, (ir)reversibility, and the effect of overshooting warming targets. Additionally, TipESM studies the potential for a cascading impact of a tipping point on other elements in the Earth system along with the broader implications for climate as well as societies and ecosystems.

In TipESM, we are establishing early warning tools for mitigating risks of tipping and preparing response actions. These include:

1. Safe Emission Scenarios: TipESM identifies safe emission scenarios, which complement the Risk Register to minimise the likelihood of exceeding individual tipping points. The scenarios guide policymakers to make informed decisions on the best direction for mitigation, reducing emissions, and adaptation efforts aimed at keeping global warming within safe limits to protect ecosystems and societies.
2. TipESM Tipping Point Risk Register: The Risk Register synthesises knowledge on the likelihood of crossing tipping points and of their potential irreversible impacts, and includes information on tipping element thresholds, timescales and impacts at global and regional scales such as loss of habitat, economic and human health risks. The Risk Register provides policymakers and stakeholders with unique information on the likelihood of crossing individual tipping points at various global warming levels and the consequences of such tipping events for ecosystems and society. The Register will provide synthetic diagrams of global and sectoral assessments with examples of regional key risks (ref: Figure TS.4 of https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg2/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FullReport.pdf).
3. Early Warnings for Climate Tipping Points: TipESM develops new early warning methods and indicators for climate tipping points. These tools can guide future observational systems in detecting the early warnings of a tipping point. Meteorological agencies and national governments can use these tools to prepare prompt response actions.