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TipESM Explained
TipESM Explained is our go-to resource for breaking down complex concepts and insights from our project. We set out to bring knowledge within everyone’s reach, regardless of their background or level of expertise.
Project background and motivation
Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and land-use changes are warming the planet, reaching around 1.1ºC above pre- industrial values. Despite efforts to reduce emissions, global warming relentlessly continues, with the increasing likelihood of exceeding the warming targets of the Paris Agreement, temporarily or permanently. The most recent IPCC 2023 report highlighted that limiting global warming to well below 2ºC is becoming extremely challenging.
Several Earth system phenomena are increasingly at risk of rapid and potentially irreversible change.
Tipping Points of significant phenomena such as the West Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets, low-altitude coral reefs and permafrost thaw are at risk, even at modest levels of warming. Tipping of Earth system elements runs a high risk that may result in severe – even catastrophic – consequences for ecosystems, biodiversity and society.
Coupled with recent research suggesting that tipping points in the Earth system may be reached earlier than previously thought, more robust knowledge of these tipping points and their potential impacts is necessary for societies and policymakers.
TipESM will deliver a step change in our understanding of climate Tipping Points in the Earth system, including their impact on ecosystems and society, combined with a set of early warning indicators and safe emission pathways that minimize the risk of exceeding such Tipping Points.
What will TipESM do?
TipESM will deliver a step change in our understanding of climate Tipping Points in the Earth system, including their impact on ecosystems and society, combined with a set of early warning indicators and safe emission pathways that minimize the risk of exceeding such Tipping Points.
TipESM brings together scientists from a range of disciplines to deliver new insights into six key Tipping Point challenges:
– Simulating Tipping Points in the Earth system with the latest generation of Earth System Models
– New knowledge of climate Tipping Points and their driving processes
– Early warning indicators and the risk for cascades of Tipping Points in the climate and ecosystems
– Identifying climate change-driven Tipping Points in ecosystem and society
– New knowledge on the impacts of climate-tipping events on ecosystems and society
– Delivering a set of safe emissions pathways to minimize the risk of crossing Tipping Points
What impacts will TipESM contribute to?
TipESM delivers a unique contribution to the climate research landscape through advancing our knowledge on the risk of climate Tipping Points and their potential impact on ecological systems and society. Through our work we will:
– Advance knowledge and solutions in Earth system science, pathways to climate neutrality, climate change adaptation, climate services, social science for climate action and understanding of climate-ecosystem interactions
– Contribute substantially to key international assessments (IPCC, IPBES, European Environment Agency)
– Increase the transparency, robustness, trustworthiness and practical usability of the knowledge base on climate and Earth system change for use by policymakers, practitioners, other stakeholders and citizens
– Strengthen the European Research Area with increased knowledge on the risks of crossing climate Tipping Points
Simulating Tipping Points with Earth System Models
Global warming poses an increasing risk of tipping for several important Earth system phenomena including continental ice sheets, marine ecosystems, permafrost, vegetation dynamics and wildfires, and the overall carbon cycle. To understand the risks, impact, and (ir)reversibility of potential tipping events, TipESM will simulate tipping points in the Earth system using the most advanced Earth System Models and dedicated experiments.
Earth System Models allow us to examine interactions of atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, and biosphere to estimate the state of climate. For example, we can induce a (hypothetical) collapse of ocean circulation in the North Atlantic by applying different scenarios of freshwater or salt inputs. This will allow an analysis of the impact of these changes on marine biogeochemistry, ocean and land carbon uptake, and further impacts on climate, society and ecosystems.
The results of simulations and experiments with Earth System Models in TipESM will help us understand:
– The risk of exceeding different climate tipping points in relation to global warming
– Processes causing tipping events
– The reversibility of climate tipping points
– The potential for cascading impacts of one tipping point to other parts of the Earth system
– The impact of climate tipping events on human and ecological systems
Download the TipESM Explained – “Simulating Tipping Points with ESMs” factsheet here.
Climate tipping points and their driving processes
Thanks to recent developments in Earth System Models (ESMs), the scientific knowledge on climate tipping points has been gradually expanding. Each new generation of ESMs provides a more nuanced picture, addressing different model biases and deficiencies. However, much is still unknown and the robustness and realism of the models’ findings remain a key challenge.
The processes and interactions that may trigger climate tipping points are not yet fully understood, and existing models’ findings are not fully aligned on the tipping thresholds.
TipESM will capitalize on the recent ESMs improvements. The most recent ESM archives will be scanned using novel algorithms in order to examine, isolate, and catalogue the chains of interactions leading to tipping events. The simulated changes and tipping signals will be further evaluated against observations and data on ancient climate (paleo-data).
By focusing on the driving processes of climate tipping points, TipESM will:
– Update previous and ongoing efforts to document tipping points and abrupt changes in Earth System Models
– Isolate the feedbacks and chains of processes leading to tipping events
– Investigate climate thresholds that lead to tipping in ecosystems and society
– Develop a new risk-landscape for tipping events, including guidance for pathways to minimize those risks
Download the TipESM Explained – “Climate tipping points and their driving processes” factsheet here
Early warning indicators and the risk for cascades of tipping points
Providing an early warning of tipping events is crucial for effective climate adaptation. It is therefore important to test the reliability of existing early warning indicators, investigate indicators of newly discovered tipping points, and develop new methods to deliver more accurate early warnings. The tipping of one climate element or occurrence of an unprecedented extreme event might cause tipping of another climate element, and might therefore serve as early warning indicator as well. However, the likelihood for occurrence of cascades of tipping points, where the tipping of one element is causing tipping of another one, and the link between extreme climate events and tipping points are not well understood yet. TipESM will apply existing early warning indicators to tipping points identified in TipESM Earth System Model simulations, and develop novel early warning methods to provide more robust warnings. Additionaly, TipESM will extend understanding on tipping points cascades by focusing on cascades not investigated before and accounting for feedbacks across Earth system components. TipESM will also advance knowledge on the linkage between extreme climate events and tipping points by scanning existing and the new TipESM simulations for extreme events occurring in advance of tipping events, and investigating how the likelihood of specific extremes triggering tipping events changes with the rate of global warming.
Download the TipESM Explained – “Early warning indicators and the risk for cascades of tipping points” factsheet here.
Identifying climate change-driven tipping points in ecosystems and society
In addition to the potentially devastating impacts of climate tipping points on ecosystems and society, incremental climate change, through both gradual warming and extreme events, can trigger tipping points in ecological and social systems, such as biodiversity loss or the permanent displacement of people. To assess these risks, it is crucial to examine which local or large-scale climate conditions or exceedance of climate thresholds could lead to tipping in these systems.
By focusing on climate change-driven tipping points in ecosystems and society, TipESM will:
– Assess the risk of tipping caused by incremental warming, associated climate change, and extreme events
– Identify the climate thresholds and drivers that may lead to tipping
– Evaluate changes in terrestrial and marine biomes, habitat and species loss, and tipping elements related to human displacement and poverty traps
Download the TipESM Explained – “Identifying climate change-driven tipping points in ecosystems and society” factsheet here
Societal and ecosystem consequences of climate tipping points
Climate tipping events can trigger widespread impacts on ecosystems, society, human health, and habitability. Impacts such as sea level rise, heat stress, drought, and water shortages may undermine food and water security, drive migration, and increase disease risks. Understanding these cascading effects requires assessing the multi-sectoral impacts of climate tipping points.
By focusing on the impacts of climate tipping events on ecosystems and society, TipESM will:
– Assess the effects of abrupt sea level rise on storm surges and coastal flooding
– Investigate how tipping points in climate systems may affect temperature and humidity, and their impact on heat stress, fire, and drought
– Estimate the crossings of heat stress survivability limits and its impact on human displacement
– Quantify the effects of climate tipping on the distribution of infectious diseases and their vectors
Download the TipESM Explained – “Societal and ecosystem consequences of climate tipping points” factsheet here.
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