We are proud to share that our TipESM Researchers have published a new paper on 2 October 2025:

Vogt, L., de Lavergne, C., Sallée, J.-B., Kwiatkowski, L., Frölicher, T. L., and Terhaar, J.: Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent, Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1453–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025, 2025.

An online talk is scheduled on 19 February 2026 with Linus Vogt on this publication. Join us for a Q&A with the author. The registration is open.

In this study, the authors provide improved global OHU projections by identifying a relationship between present-day Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) and future OHU across an ensemble of 28 state-of-the-art climate models.

Models with more sea ice at present also generally simulate a colder Southern Hemisphere climate state, allowing a larger shift in atmospheric and ocean warming.

This regional change affects global warming and heat uptake via a northward-propagating cloud feedback.

Combining this relationship between historical Antarctic sea ice extent and future global OHU with satellite observations of Antarctic sea ice reduces the uncertainty of OHU projections under future emission scenarios by 12 %–33 %. Moreover, the study shows that an underestimation of present-day Antarctic sea ice in the latest generation of climate models results in an underestimation of future OHU by 3 %–14 %, an underestimation of global cloud feedback by 19 %–32 %, and an underestimation of global atmospheric warming by 6 %–7 %.

This emergent constraint is based on a strong coupling between Antarctic sea ice, deep-ocean temperatures, and Southern Hemisphere sea surface temperatures and cloud cover in climate models.

The study reveals how the present-day Southern Ocean state impacts future climate change and suggests that previous constraints based on warming trends over recent decades have underestimated future warming and ocean heat uptake.